The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) is the best method to forecast the real fire danger which uses the Energy Release Component (ERC) or the Burn Index (BI). Some stations use ERC and others use BI for calculating the Fire Danger Rating. They have a chart that uses Staffing Levels (STL or SL) and the Ignition Component (IC) to derive the Adjective Fire Ratings of Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extreme.
Script courtesy of Alan Clark at N5PA Modified by John Shortt at Apache Junction Weather